Data for Exploring the Relative Contribution of the MJO and ENSO to Mid-latitude Subseasonal Predictability

d583124
| DOI: 10.5065/F21V-YA03
 
Abstract:

Here we explore the relative contribution of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to mid-latitude subseasonal predictive skill of upper atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific, using an inherently interpretable neural network applied to pre-industrial control runs of the Community Earth System Model version 2. We find that this interpretable network generally favors the state of ENSO, rather than the MJO, to make correct predictions on a range of subseasonal lead times and predictand averaging windows. Moreover, the predictability of positive circulation anomalies over the North Pacific is comparatively lower than that of their negative counterparts, especially evident when the ENSO state is important. However, when ENSO is in a neutral state, our findings indicate that the MJO provides some predictive information, particularly for positive anomalies. We identify three distinct evolutions of these MJO states, offering fresh insights into opportune forecasting windows for MJO teleconnections.

Temporal Range:
0100 to 0400
Variables:
El Nino Southern Oscillation (enso) Madden-julian Oscillation
Data Types:
Grid
Data Contributors:
UCAR/NCAR/CGD
Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Total Volume:
1.12 TB
Data Formats:
HDF5/NetCDF4
Metadata Record:
Data License:
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